DECONSTRUCTING THE STATE-LOGISTICS PARADOX: MULTI MARGIN ELIMINATION, INTER-ENTITY CANNIBALIZATION, AND DIGITAL ALIGNMENT IN INDONESIA’S SOE SUPER-HOLDING RESTRUCTURING

Abstract

High logistics costs and fragmented service provision are persistent coordination challenges for archipelagic economies. This study develops the State-Driven Multi-Modal Integration and Double-Marginalization Elimination (SD-MIDE) framework to explain how state-owned enterprise (SOE) restructuring may affect logistics performance through three connected mechanisms: vertical coordination and markup compression, horizontal reduction of overlapping capacity, and digital interoperability. Integrating transaction cost economics, the resource-based view, and principal–agent/public-choice perspectives, the paper specifies a panel-data research design for Indonesia’s multimodal SOE logistics ecosystem. A reproducible synthetic panel of 24 entity–corridor units observed over 2017–2024 is used to demonstrate the proposed estimators and the internal coherence of the hypotheses; it is not evidence about the realised performance of any named enterprise. Unit and year fixed-effects regressions are estimated for a logistics-cost proxy, dwell time, and asset turnover, with standard errors clustered at the unit level. In the simulated results, multimodal integration and National Logistics Ecosystem (NLE) interoperability are associated with lower logistics-cost and dwell-time outcomes, while greater service and investment overlap is associated with poorer performance. The interaction between institutional inertia and digital interoperability is negative, consistent with the proposition that digital coordination can weaken the operational consequences of organizational rigidity. The integration-by-corridor interaction is directionally consistent with larger gains in archipelagic settings, although this result is treated as exploratory. The article contributes a mechanism-based framework, operational definitions, a transparent estimation workflow, and a phased policy roadmap. Because the analysis is based on constructed observations, all coefficient estimates are illustrative and must not be interpreted as causal or as estimates of Indonesia’s actual logistics costs. A field application requires validated enterprise, corridor, transaction, and administrative data.